Very key point in the value collapse. I put it as "prices wI'll be zero or crazy"
A minor point, I don't think wind and solar interfere in the way you describe. Beiig somewhat anti-correlated, the build put of wind and solar should be able to get close to, but not quite upto their combined CF for the same level of value reduction.
Would also be interesting to see how correlated on and offshore wind are. Having a mix may be better than just one type.
Agree with second point, another reason to go offshore. As to whether solar and wind decorrelate? See the link for a comparison (and discussion) of wind during daylight and non-daylight hours.
In Ontario we do have a much more distinct seasonal effect, but it depends on how much over gen you are willing to take.
In spring and fall drmandatory is low, and wind and solar are both somewhat therr, so not great. In winter, solar phones it in. In summer wind tails off and solar works well against AC peak.
Wind average CF is about 30, and solar about 15. I can get about 40% before curtailment goes above about 1% of it (in about that same ratio). And about 70% would be the min system cost for fuel savings if it was all NG backed, but zero cost times chew out wind and solar value. But it is not NG backed, so it is somewhat artificial.
Very key point in the value collapse. I put it as "prices wI'll be zero or crazy"
A minor point, I don't think wind and solar interfere in the way you describe. Beiig somewhat anti-correlated, the build put of wind and solar should be able to get close to, but not quite upto their combined CF for the same level of value reduction.
Would also be interesting to see how correlated on and offshore wind are. Having a mix may be better than just one type.
Agree with second point, another reason to go offshore. As to whether solar and wind decorrelate? See the link for a comparison (and discussion) of wind during daylight and non-daylight hours.
https://bravenewclimate.com/2015/11/08/the-capacity-factor-of-wind/
Thatbis a very nice analysis.
In Ontario we do have a much more distinct seasonal effect, but it depends on how much over gen you are willing to take.
In spring and fall drmandatory is low, and wind and solar are both somewhat therr, so not great. In winter, solar phones it in. In summer wind tails off and solar works well against AC peak.
Wind average CF is about 30, and solar about 15. I can get about 40% before curtailment goes above about 1% of it (in about that same ratio). And about 70% would be the min system cost for fuel savings if it was all NG backed, but zero cost times chew out wind and solar value. But it is not NG backed, so it is somewhat artificial.
Beyond 70% curtailment goes up fast.